What is happening with US stocks is the question on everyone’s mind. The Dow Industrials’ daily Bollinger Band breadth has dropped to its lowest point since April 25, while the S&P 500 is reaching its lowest point since April 14. The swoons that eventually reached their lowest point in June were just beginning to materialize back then.
There are numerous explanations being offered, as well as numerous accusations. There is just one single explanation. the price of something. rates of interest. It is no accident that since the financial crisis of 2007–2008, stock values have experienced an epic rise at a time when interest rates are at historic lows. Right now, interest rates are tracking higher. Borrowing costs increase, which may have a negative effect on profitability and ultimately stock prices. Higher interest rates require you to predict future cash flows and discount them at higher interest rates when valuing businesses, which will lead to a lower valuation.
The SPX and Dow started to decelerate from their record highs about the same time as the Nasdaq Composite’s daily BB width started to decline. The small-cap Russell 2000 figures, meanwhile, are even more condensed. Since November, when it was only five trading days away from its record high, its daily BB breadth has dropped to its lowest point. Compressed historical volatility can indicate a market primed for some wild gyrations or even its next important trend, however, it does not in and of itself forecast direction.
However, traders will be looking for a RUT breakout of the range indicated by its upper and lower BBs, which finished Monday around 1,785 and 1,670. Readings can get even more compressed. Such a move has the potential to generate break-related follow-through momentum.
Right now, bitcoin appears to be setting the bar high with an upside breakout. In any case, with the much-anticipated FOMC meeting, the tech titan earnings reports, and the pressure that U.S. indexes are under mounting, equities appear to be ready to let off some steam.
The market has been oblivious to the gradual increase in interest rates up until lately. Investors will at some time realize that interest rates will increase to the point where keeping stocks that pay dividends is more profitable than investing in low-risk government bonds. When that time arrives people will start to wonder why they possess hazardous stocks. That discussion is frequently framed by changes in interest rates.
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