In One Chart: Betting markets favor DeSantis over Trump for 2024 Republican presidential nomination, as Elon Musk voices support for Florida governor


Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has the edge over Donald Trump to score the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, according to the latest odds in the betting market PredictIt.

DeSantis has a 38% chance, ahead of Trump’s 36% and 7% for Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Former Vice President Mike Pence is at 6%, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina gets 4%, and other Republican politicians are at 3% or lower.

Trump had the edge over DeSantis in March, April and May, as shown below in PredictIt’s chart.

The former president’s prospects have edged down from 38% on June 8 in the wake of public hearings held by the House committee probing the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. The hearings have featured searing charges against Trump, painting a portrait of him as at the center of a conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election that was won by President Joe Biden.

DeSantis has the edge over Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, according to the latest PredictIt odds.


Trump’s “mixed record in primaries this spring is a sign that he’s losing altitude,” said said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, in a recent note.

The former president “could become eclipsed by conservative Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as Republicans seek someone more palatable than Trump,” Valliere added.

Related: Trump suffers big defeats in Georgia GOP primaries

Also: Trump notches win in South Carolina, as his candidate ousts incumbent 

Meanwhile, DeSantis’s chances have risen to 38% from 34% on June 8 — and from as low as 27% in late March.

To be sure, betting markets aren’t always right, with PredictIt users, for example, getting a Supreme Court nomination wrong a few years ago.

Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, tweeted Wednesday that he’s leaning toward supporting DeSantis in the 2024 White House race.

“I supported Yang last time, but DeSantis has a better chance of winning,” the Tesla

and SpaceX CEO said on Twitter, referring to former long-shot Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang.

Musk, who has been at odds with the Biden administration often, also tweeted that he voted Republican for the first time ever, casting his ballot for victorious GOP House candidate Mayra Flores in Tuesday’s special primary election in Texas.

DeSantis appeared to make an effort to play down and joke about Musk’s support following a question about the development on Wednesday.

“I’m focused on 2022, but with Elon Musk what I would say is I welcome support from African-Americans. What can I say?” the governor said, in a reference to the fact that Musk was born and raised in South Africa.

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